Soccer Slant

According to Ladbrokes.com, an online betting house, the Spanish National Team has a 5 to 1 chance of winning Euro 2008, second only behind the Germans at 4 to 1. Spain has not lost a match in over a year and has two impressive wins against the finalists of the 2006 World Cup, France and Italy. Luis Aragonés has built a squad full of youthful exuberance and technical skill, with the intention of keeping possession and breaking down opponents with methodical build up play.

History tells us, however, that this is not the formula for success at a major tournament. If one looks at the past few major international tournaments it becomes obvious that experience, defensive rigor, and quick, opportunistic counter-attacks carry teams deep into the knockout stages and onto the championship. Aragonés witnessed this firsthand in Germany ´06, where Spain mesmerized football fans with wonderful play in the group stage. Spanish hopes were dashed when they faced a French wall built by Patrick Vieira, Claude Makelele, Willy Sagnol, Lillian Thuram, William Gallas, and Eric Abidal. The French consumed the Spanish attack with brute force and then allowed the magnificent Zinedine Zidane to fire bullets in the form of Franck Ribery, Florent Malouda, and Thierry Henry at the Spanish defense. They say that with age one becomes more reluctant to change and that certainly seems like the case with Aragonés.

Goalkeeper:

At ‘keeper, Aragonés has very few doubts. Iker Casillas is the undisputed starter and rightfully so. This season’s Zamora winner is one of the best ‘keepers in the tournament, and has evolved into a complete player. Always blessed with cat-like reflexes, Casillas has honed his aerial judgment to the point where mistakes have been virtually non-existent this season. One area of concern is that he isn’t a terribly great penalty stopper, and that could be key in the knockout phase. Behind him, Aragonés has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. Not many countries can claim to have the starting ‘keepers of Real Madrid, Liverpool, Barcelona, and Arsenal. Pepe Reina (a penalty specialist) and Andrés Palop were the chosen ones, and both are very capable ‘keepers should Casillas come down with an injury.

Defense:

Without a doubt, the defense line is Spain’s weakest line. Sergio Ramos is Spain’s best defender because his overwhelming combination of size, speed, skill, and charisma. Due to Spain’s lack of quality fullbacks, however, Ramos will ply his trade on the right flank. There is simply no one else with the ability to provide a threat out wide on the right, which is critical on a team without proper wingers. Backing him up is Liverpool’s Alvaro Arbeloa, a solid if unspectacular player whose versatility allows him to play every position in the back line.

In the center Carles Puyol will be called upon to lead. The longtime Barcelona captain is coming off one of his worst seasons and is beginning to show signs of age. Always a defender that relied on physical prowess and speed over positioning and guile, at 30 years old that physical superiority that allowed him to be an effective defender is beginning to wane. His partner will most likely be Carlos Marchena, a very tough character, but lacking elite defensive skills. Ironically, his teammate at Valencia, Raúl Albiol, will start at the bench despite being faster, taller, and with the proper vision to bring the ball out of the back effectively, something that a supposed Marchena – Puyol partnership utterly lacks. The fourth centre back will be Juanito, a veteran player who is strong in the air.

At Left Back Aragonés will put his faith in Villarreal’s Joan Capdevila. Capdevila is capable of getting up and down the wing, and possesses surprising instincts in front of goal for a defender, as well as a thunderous left foot. Backing him up will be Mallorca’s Fernando Navarro, a solid player who is coming off a good season.

Midfield:

The midfield is where Spain possesses the most quality. Spain will field the most technically skilled midfield in the tournament which will be responsible to carry the weight of the team through crisp passing and coordinated movements, because they certainly won’t outmuscle any opponents. The Spanish midfield will also be missing a true explosive threat.

At defensive midfield, it looks like the responsibility will be handed to Brazilian-born Marcos Senna. Senna has been key in Villarreal’s spectacular La Liga campaign this year. He will be given a heightened role on the National Team, as he will be asked to single-handedly provide strength, defensive prowess, and cover for the fullbacks when they attack. His shot from distance will also be a good asset for the team. Backing him up will be Liverpool’s Xabi Alonso, who finished strong in a season he otherwise struggled in. Alonso gives the team a greater range of passing from deep, but does not have the range or strength of Senna. Getafe’s Ruben de la Red will be the third option, and he will provide more of a box-to-box threat, as well as heading ability on set pieces.

Aragonés will give the reins of the Spanish build up play to Barcelona’s Xavi. He is one of the best in the world at circulating the ball around the pitch with sense, and this season he has emerged as a goal scoring threat coming in from the second line. From then on, doubts emerge. Lately, Aragonés has favored a 4-1-4-1 with a lone striker, and one false winger. If that is the case Arsenal’s inspirational midfield general, Cesc Fabregas will partner Xavi in the center of the 4-man line. The young Catalan has not been the vigorous, driving force he’s been with his club so far on the National Team. Nevertheless, he remains one of the squad’s best players. If he can replicate his club form, Spain’s chances would take a quantum leap

On the left wing David Silva will be the man charged with providing the unpredictable touch in the final third. Not a winger in the classic sense, Silva has spent a significant part of the season playing in the center. He is the most inventive and mercurial of the Spanish attackers. Backing him up will be Santi Cazorla, a similar player in many ways but not at Silva’s level. He is another member from this year’s formidable Villarreal side.

On the right, Aragonés will play Andrés Iniesta as a false winger with freedom to roam. He has played here with Spain and has responded well, scoring some important goals in the process. He has the best attacking vision on the team and is blessed with a deceptive change of pace that allows him to skip past defenders. Backing him up is his former teammate in Barca´s youth team, Sergio Garcia. Despite getting relegated with Zaragoza, Sergio Garcia has blossomed as a player since being switched from forward to right wing. He has proven to be a surprisingly good passer. Always blessed with incisive, intelligent movement, his new position doesn’t put as much of a burden on him to score goals, which was always his weak point.

Forward:

Fernando Torres must be Spain’s reference point on the field. He is coming off of a true breakout season at Liverpool, and has established himself as one of Europe’s top forwards. Euro ’08 marks the first time in a long time that Spain is coming into a major tournament with such a big star leading the line. Torres managed to score 30 goals in all competitions in his first full season in England; certainly an impressive feat, but it will only bring added pressure in these Euros. How he responds to that pressure will go a long way in determining what kind of player Torres can become. Torres is blessed with superior physical qualities. He is an awesome combination of height, strength, and blinding speed. He has enough burst in his first step to blow by a defender in a one-on-one, and has enough skill to create his own chance in the box. He is most effective running at defenders with pace, and sometimes loses his focus when he tries to drop deep and create. Rafa Benitez has altered his game since coming from Atletico de Madrid, and it has paid off. The nervousness that used to exist when he was in front of goal has disappeared.

Last year, it seemed unthinkable to leave Valencia’s David Villa out of the starting lineup for these Euros. But Valencia’s horrible season, coupled with Torres’ explosion at Liverpool, have made him expendable, and it looks like Aragonés will start with just one forward and five midfielders. Nevertheless, Villa showed against Italy that he could be a very useful option off the bench. He is still has a more complete game than Torres, and is generally a smarter player. He is also the best set piece taker on the team, which can be very useful to break open a gridlocked match. His rabid spirit is perfect for when a team needs heroism in the dire moments of a match. Dani Güiza, this year´s pichichi in La Liga, will be the third option. A late bloomer at age 27, Güiza is coming off the best year in his career. He is a player that plays on the edge, but then shows surprising coolness in the finish. It will be interesting to see how he is used in this tournament.

Conclusion:

Spain has a lot of talent in the ranks. This is one of the most skillful Spanish sides in many years. What seems to lack is the experience and solidity required to succeed in a tournament like the Euros. Moreover, while the starting lineup looks impressive almost from top to bottom, Aragonés doesn’t have many alternatives on the bench, especially in defense. Injuries or suspensions could be a problem for Spain.

The most important challenge will be to overcome the inexorable weight of history. Every year, each Spanish side seems to inherit the heartbreak and disappointment of years past. Year after year talented squads stumble and fall once the knockout phase begins. Will Aragonés be able to prepare the squad to overcome that mental barrier? According to history, that will be very difficult to do.